Recently, I did a video where we took a close look at how the Black power movement set themselves up for failure by moving from a self-sufficiency movement to becoming an onramp for Federal employment.
So I decided to take this topic even further by running an entire “what if” scenario through Grok. I wanted to see what would happen in the next 20 years or so to these Black Federal workers who have locked themselves in a system that has historically rebuffed any technological innovations in their workplace.
And with the rise of robotics, this will definitely have an impact on manufacturing and even gig jobs like food delivery and transportation like being an Uber driver. So I also wanted to see the impact of robotics on Black employment in those areas as well.
Key Points
- Research suggests that if the Federal government modernizes its technology, Black Federal employees, especially those 35 and older, may face job displacement due to limited exposure to modern tools.
- It seems likely that without upskilling, their income levels could decline, impacting the Black middle class reliant on Federal jobs.
- The evidence leans toward robotics and AI reducing manufacturing and gig jobs, potentially affecting Black Americans disproportionately if they don’t retrain in technology.
- An unexpected detail is that Black Americans show high interest in technology, but representation in tech jobs remains low, highlighting a gap in opportunity.
Impact on Black Federal Employees
If the Federal government modernizes to match private sector technology, Black Federal employees, particularly those 35 and older, may struggle to adapt due to limited exposure to modern tools in their current roles. Historically, these jobs have provided stable income, but many use outdated systems from the 1950s and 60s, leaving workers less familiar with current practices like programming or cybersecurity. Without training, they risk job loss, which could threaten their economic stability and the Black middle class, given their significant representation in Federal employment.
Income Levels Without Adjustments
Without corrective actions, income levels for Black Americans could decline as Federal jobs shrink, and those unable to transition may face unemployment or lower-paying roles. This could widen economic disparities, especially since a large portion of the Black middle class is rooted in government work, potentially reversing decades of progress.
Impact of Robotics and AI on Other Sectors
In manufacturing, warehouse, and gig jobs like Uber or food delivery, robotics and AI are automating tasks, which could displace Black Americans overrepresented in these sectors. If they don’t retrain in areas like robotics or AI, they may face job losses, leading to economic hardship compared to other groups who adapt, potentially exacerbating racial economic gaps.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Technology Modernization and Its Impact on Black Americans
This analysis explores the potential impacts of Federal government technology modernization on Black American Federal employees, particularly those aged 35 and older, and extends to the effects of robotics and AI on Black Americans in manufacturing, warehouse, and gig jobs. It considers current deficiencies, corrective actions, and scenarios without intervention, factoring in educational disparities and interest in technology.
Background on Federal Government Technology
The Federal government has historically lagged in technology adoption, with reports indicating reliance on systems from the 1950s and 60s, such as COBOL and hardware like 8-inch floppy disks. For instance, a 2016 report by The Hill highlighted that parts of the government’s $80 billion IT budget maintain 1970s-era computers, with the Government Accountability Office (GAO) noting over $61 billion spent on operations and maintenance rather than modernization (Five of the most outdated IT systems in the government). This lag means many Federal employees, including Black Americans, have limited exposure to modern tools, potentially hindering their adaptability if the government aligns with private sector standards.
Representation of Black Americans in Federal Employment
Black Americans have long relied on Federal government jobs for economic stability, with data showing they make up nearly 20% of the Federal workforce, higher than their 12.6% share of the U.S. population (Three charts on diversity in the federal government’s workforce). A 2025 NBC News article noted that Federal jobs have been crucial for building the Black middle class, offering opportunities not always available in the private sector (The Black middle class was built by federal jobs. Now drastic cuts by Trump, Musk are putting it under threat). However, this reliance may leave them vulnerable if technology modernization occurs without preparation.
Deficiencies of Black Federal Workers Compared to Private Sector
Compared to Black workers in the private sector, Black Federal workers may face the following deficiencies:
- Limited Exposure to Modern Technology: Federal jobs often use outdated systems, reducing professional experience with current tools like AI or cloud computing, unlike private sector roles in tech companies.
- Potential Skills Gap: They may lack skills in programming languages (e.g., Python, JavaScript) or cybersecurity, which are in demand in modern Federal IT jobs, as noted in a 2023 Management Concepts report (Top 10 In-Demand Technical Skills for Federal Employees).
- Educational Disparities: Data shows Black students have lower high school graduation rates (70% in 2018 vs. 89% for Whites) and college attainment (26.2% with a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2023 vs. 34.8% nationally), potentially impacting tech readiness (Black High School Graduation Rates by State 2024, Black Students in Higher Education – PNPI).
- Less Familiarity with Latest Trends: Private sector Black workers, especially in tech, may have more exposure to trends like AI, while Federal workers may not, given the government’s slower adoption rate.
Corrective Actions Needed
To address these deficiencies, the following actions are recommended:
- Training and Upskilling Programs: Offer comprehensive training in modern technologies, such as coding bootcamps or AI workshops, to bridge the skills gap.
- Mentorship and Support Systems: Pair employees with tech-savvy mentors to facilitate learning and career transitions.
- Partnerships with Educational Institutions: Collaborate with universities and community colleges to provide accessible tech courses, targeting Black employees.
- Incentives for Continuous Learning: Provide financial incentives or paid time off for employees pursuing tech certifications.
- Diversity and Inclusion Initiatives: Ensure training programs are inclusive, addressing historical barriers to tech education for Black Americans.
- Modernizing Federal Government Technology: Update government systems to align with private sector standards, naturally requiring employees to engage with modern tools.
Scenario Without Corrective Actions
If no actions are taken, the following could occur over the next 20 years:
- Job Displacement: Employees unable to adapt may lose jobs, with estimates suggesting automation could affect up to 20% of Federal roles, per a 2020 MIT Sloan study on robot impacts (A new study measures the actual impact of robots on jobs. It’s significant.).
- Economic Instability: Loss of Federal jobs could lead to income drops, impacting Black families’ ability to maintain middle-class status, given their reliance on government work.
- Widening Income Gap: Without upskilling, Black Americans’ income levels may lag behind those in the private sector, exacerbating racial economic disparities.
- Loss of Middle-Class Status: The Black middle class, significantly rooted in Federal employment, could shrink, reversing decades of economic progress.
Impact on Manufacturing, Warehouse, and Gig Jobs
Black Americans are overrepresented in manufacturing and gig jobs, with data showing they lost 646,500 manufacturing jobs from 1998 to 2020, per the Economic Policy Institute (Black workers hard hit by decades of globalization). In gig work, 20% of Black adults have done platform jobs, higher than Whites (12%), according to a 2021 Pew Research Center report (In the U.S. gig workforce, racial and ethnic differences stand out).
Robotics and AI are transforming these sectors, with robots increasing efficiency in manufacturing (e.g., automotive, 38% robot adoption) and warehouses (e.g., Amazon using AGVs), potentially reducing demand for human labor. A 2024 American Machinist article noted AI-driven robots work 24/7, reducing errors but also human roles (The Impact of AI-Powered Robots on Manufacturing Efficiency and Quality Control).
Impact on Black Americans Not Updating Skills
If Black Americans in these sectors do not retrain in technology, they may face:
- Job Displacement: Automation could eliminate roles like assembly line work or delivery, with a 2020 MIT Sloan study estimating significant job losses in manufacturing (A new study measures the actual impact of robots on jobs. It’s significant.).
- Difficulty in Finding New Employment: Without skills in robotics or AI, they may struggle to find new jobs, especially in tech-driven sectors.
- Economic Hardship: Loss of income could lead to financial instability, affecting housing and education.
- Wider Economic Gap: Compared to groups like Whites, who may have higher rates of tech adoption, Black Americans could fall further behind, per McKinsey’s 2023 report on the Black tech talent gap (How to close the Black tech talent gap).
Comparative Impact with Other Groups
Black Americans may be disproportionately affected due to higher representation in at-risk sectors and lower educational outcomes, with Pew Research Center noting only 8% of tech jobs held by Black workers despite 12% of the workforce (Facts About the U.S. Black Population). Other groups, like Asians, with higher tech representation, may fare better if they adapt, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.
Table: Summary of Key Statistics
| Metric | Black Americans | National Average/Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Workforce Representation | ~18% | 12.6% of U.S. population |
| High School Graduation Rate (2018) | 70% | 89% (Whites) |
| College Attainment (2023) | 26.2% | 34.8% (national) |
| Tech Job Representation | 8% | 12% of U.S. workforce |
| Manufacturing Job Loss (1998-2020) | 646,500 jobs lost | Significant, but data varies |
| Gig Work Participation (2021) | 20% ever done | 12% (Whites) |
This table summarizes key data points, highlighting disparities that could amplify impacts if no actions are taken.
Conclusion
The modernization of Federal technology and the rise of robotics and AI pose significant risks for Black Americans in government and manual labor jobs, particularly without upskilling. Corrective actions like training and partnerships can mitigate these risks, ensuring economic stability and reducing racial disparities.
Key Citations
Top 10 In-Demand Technical Skills for Federal Employees
Five of the most outdated IT systems in the government
Black workers had long history with fed jobs before shutdown
Public Work Provides Economic Security for Black Families and Communities
Three charts on diversity in the federal government’s workforce
Black High School Graduation Rates by State 2024
Black Students in Higher Education – PNPI
How to close the Black tech talent gap
Black Americans and Technology Use
Industries at a Glance: Warehousing and Storage: NAICS 493
Black workers hard hit by decades of globalization
In the U.S. gig workforce, racial and ethnic differences stand out
The Impact of AI-Powered Robots on Manufacturing Efficiency and Quality Control
A new study measures the actual impact of robots on jobs. It’s significant.